North Jersey residents are bracing not only for the storm surge expected to be produced by approaching Hurricane Irene but also heavy river flooding along the Passaic, Ramapo and Saddle rivers as the hurricane dumps up to 10 inches of rain on an already saturated landscape.
“Before we got a drop of Irene moisture, this was the sixth-wettest August on record in New Jersey going back to 1895, and the National Weather Service is already predicting ‘top 10’ flood events on all or portions of the Passaic River basin’s rivers,” said David Robinson, the state climatologist.
Residents began evacuating Saturday in preparation for Irene’s arrival, which was barreling up the Atlantic coast from North Carolina, where it delivered sustained winds of 85 mph. Early Saturday night, the hurricane was forecast to make landfall just north of Atlantic City and exit New Jersey just north of Seaside. Should Irene make landfall in New Jersey as a hurricane, it would be the first storm to do so since 1903.
The already saturated soil will be unable to absorb much of the heavy rainfall, causing rivers to swell to flood stage Sunday. Many will continue to rise until peaking as late as Tuesday.
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The Ramapo River at Pompton Lakes is expected to hit flood stage at 10 a.m. Sunday and peak around at 2 a.m. Monday at 14.7 feet — about an inch lower than the peak flooding that occurred in March this year.
The Saddle River at Lodi is expected to reach flood stage 3 a.m. Sunday and peak at 12.7 feet around 2 p.m. Sunday.
The Passaic River at Little Falls is due to reach flood stage 4 a.m. Sunday and peak around 2 p.m. Tuesday at 11.6 feet — a level that would rival the major flooding that occurred in March.
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Residents spent Saturday evacuating some areas of North Jersey to avoid flooding from both the storm surge and the rainfall that will flood rivers.
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Hillsdale firefighters spent the morning knocking on doors to alert residents of a 4 p.m. mandatory evacuation.
Firetrucks with flashing lights were parked in the Glendale section of the borough as volunteers went door to door. Lieutenant Tom Kelley said that about 90 percent of those he spoke with have agreed to leave. “Normally, about 10 percent of the people leave,” he said. “But with this event, everybody knows how dangerous the situation is because only about 10 percent said they are staying.”
Palisades Medical Center in North Bergen also worked this morning to get all of its remaining patients transferred to neighboring hospitals. The emergency department closed at noon Saturday. Officials plan to reopen the hospital early Monday.
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Final preparations for Irene were hampered somewhat by a heavy rain — the outer wisps of the hurricane — that fell early Saturday afternoon over parts of North Jersey.
The eye of Hurricane Irene made landfall near Cape Lookout, N.C., at about 7:30 a.m. Saturday, and the storm is forecast to remain near hurricane strength as it roars up into the New Jersey and New York area.
The forecast calls for 6 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum amounts of up to 15 inches.
The storm will also push a wall of water in front of it, causing a storm surge of 4 to 8 feet above ground level, swamping low-lying areas from the Meadowlands to Battery Park in Manhattan.
“We are going to have a lot of water coming into Newark Bay, the Hackensack River, the Passaic and New York Harbor,” said Alan F. Blumberg, director of the Center for Maritime Systems at Stevens Institute of Technology in Hoboken. “There’s a high probability that areas around the Meadowlands will be flooded. It makes no difference exactly where it makes landfall — we’re going to get a huge surge here.
“The storm’s timing will be key,” Blumberg said. “High tide is around 8 a.m. Sunday, and the storm is predicted around 10 a.m. If it arrives on either side of high tide, then look out.”
He said a 1992 nor’easter flooded the PATH trains, and Irene will likely be more powerful when it hits. “Expect the PATH to be wet,” Blumberg said. “Commuters will need alternate transportation into the city Monday.”
Blumberg said the storm surge should start to recede about six hours after the storm hits.
Gov. Chris Christie said the Oyster Creek nuclear plant plans to power down to 30 percent capacity, which protocol requires when winds of more than 75 mph are expected. The nuclear power facilities at Salem and Hope Creek do not expect winds that high and are not planning to power down.
NJ Transit shut down service at noon as planned. Bus ridership was extremely light Saturday morning, a spokeswoman said.
Christie said that by 2 p.m. Saturday, 95 percent of Long Beach Island had been vacated, 98 percent of Cape May County was evacuated and 90 percent of the barrier islands in Atlantic County had been evacuated.
“Our concern now is Atlantic City,” Christie said. Some 600 mostly senior residents were refusing to leave their homes in high-rise buildings. “We’re concerned about them because of their age and the high winds” that could cause flying glass to make conditions dangerous, he said. State police and NJ Transit were sending several additional buses to circle those buildings while troopers try to speak with the residents to coax them to leave for shelters.
Christie said that 1,500 National Guard soldiers and airmen had been deployed across 12 armories and at shelters to help evacuees. The state is ready to open the Jersey City Armory, which can handle 750 people, and the Izod Center, which can accommodate another 1,700, if needed. Christie said that flooding after the storm could also require evacuations, even away from the coast, as rivers rise.
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Christie noted that nursing homes throughout the state are for the most part privately owned and were making their own preparations. Douglas Struyk, president and CEO of Christian Healthcare Center in Wyckoff, said that the facility topped off its fuel supplies, tested its emergency power system and has some staff sleeping over Saturday night so they can be sure to be on their shifts Sunday. He said the center has also been in touch with local emergency management officials to let them know they have some available beds and an auditorium in case some people locally need a place to stay.
The facility is on high ground and not likely to need to be evacuated, but the center’s staff has practiced evacuation procedures in the past and there will be several ambulances standing by in case an evacuation is needed, said John Browne, the company’s vice president of resident services and its emergency response coordinator.
Tim Hodges, a spokesman for CareOne Senior Care Centers, including CareOne at Dunroven in Cresskill, said all 30 of its facilities in the state have been preparing for the storm since Wednesday. Those preparations include ensuring staffing plans are intact and the amount of supplies — from medical and emergency kits to batteries — are available.
“We have been preparing and testing our backup generators,” Hodges said. “We have overstocked core supplies.”
The centers have also been serving as a safe haven for some hospice patients and homebound elderly.
“Our centers in Bergen County and Monmouth County are at capacity,” Hodges said.
Local jails were also taking measures to prepare. Passaic County Sheriff Richard H. Berdnik ordered a modified lockdown of the Passaic County Jail from 3 p.m. Saturday to 11 a.m. Sunday. Indoor and outdoor inmate recreational activities and inmate visitation were canceled to help maintain order in the jail and assist the Sheriff’s Office in responding to the storm, Berdnik said in a press release.
Additional officers were also added for security, to help the Sheriff’s Office respond to the storm and to take approved inmates into the community to help with storm-related preparation and cleanup efforts.
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While homeowners finished their hurricane preparations Saturday, some birders were anticipating a potential windfall — literally — once the storm passes. Many birds have already started their southern migrations from breeding grounds in Canada, and could get forced to land by the storm. Other birds normally seen only in the tropics might get pushed north with Irene, said Don Torino of Bergen County Audubon.
“What I’m more concerned about is the potential habitat loss from the storm, especially in the Meadowlands,” he said.
Stevens Institute’s Blumberg said the storm surge could also exacerbate contamination problems in local rivers. The sediment in parts of the Passaic River, particularly in Newark, is contaminated with dioxins. “The lower Passaic is loaded with dioxins, and when the storm surge moves in it can move the dioxins up into the water column and move it everywhere up and down the river,” he said.
President Obama on Saturday declared an emergency for New Jersey, which makes federal aid available to the state to supplement local response efforts because of the storm. The Federal Emergency Management Agency had already moved supplies to Maguire Air Force Base in central New Jersey earlier this week to have them ready to distribute once the storm passes.
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